Six Champions League qualifying matches that could decide Newcastle United’s group stage fate

There are still 20 teams vying for the final six group stage places in the 2023-24 Champions League with the play-off round draw already made. And the second leg of the majority of the third qualifying round matches take place tonight.

And the 32 group stage teams will not be formalised until the play-off round is completed on August 30. Newcastle are almost certain to be in pot four for the group stage draw on August 31, and that is likely to be decided tonight.

Newcastle’s coefficient of 21.914 is the third lowest of the 26 teams who have qualified for the Champions League as it stands. This means they need all six teams still yet to qualify to have a lower coefficient than 21.914 in order to get into pot three instead of pot four.

Given the make-up of the play-off round draw, should certain teams progress to the final qualifying stage, Newcastle will be certain to be in pot four.

There are six games that could decide Newcastle’s fate this evening.

Rangers v Servette & PSV Eindhoven v Sturm Graz

Both Rangers and PSV Eindhoven have a higher coefficient than Newcastle and will play each other should they progress to the play-off round. If that happens, Newcastle will be guaranteed to be pot four.

Rangers take a narrow 2-1 lead into their second leg against Swiss side Servette while PSV are looking likely to progress having beaten Austrian side Sturm Graz 4-1 in the first leg.

Braga v TSC & Panathinaikos v Marseille

The same applies should Braga and Marseille progress as they both have a higher coefficient than Newcastle.

Braga beat Serbian side TSC 3-0 in the first leg while Marseille trail Greek side Panathinaikos 1-0.

Olimpija Ljubljana v Galatasaray & KÍ v Molde

Galatasaray have a higher coefficient than Newcastle and are likely to progress having beaten Slovenian side Olimpija Ljubljana 3-0 in the first leg.

Norwegian champions Molde also have a higher coefficient than the Magpies but suffered a shock defeat to Faroe Island minnows KI in the first leg of their third qualifying round match.

If Molde overturn the deficit and Galatasaray progress as expected then Newcastle will be pot four.

In the unlikely event all three pairs of fixtures only see one team with a higher coefficient than Newcastle progress, there is still a very small chance Eddie Howe’s side could be drawn in pot three.

What is the difference between pot three & pot four for Newcastle United?

It is a simple group seeding process which means Newcastle would in theory be drawn into a marginally easier group should they manage to be in pot three while pot four means they will be the lowest ranked side in their group in terms of a UEFA coefficient.