Reform to seize control of four more North East councils in May local elections, new polling predicts
Reform UK could be on course to seize control of four more North East councils in May, according to new polling.
New predictions put Labour on course for a dramatic collapse across Tyne and Wear at the upcoming local elections.
The AI-driven modelling suggests that Reform could win more than 200 seats across our region in May and take control of local councils in Newcastle, Gateshead, Sunderland, and South Tyneside – all of which are currently run by Labour.
Nigel Farage’s party delivered a political earthquake in Durham last year, with a landslide victory that saw Reform sweep into power at County Hall.
And the upcoming local elections in Tyne and Wear offer the opportunity for an enormous change in the balance of power across the region.
All out elections, where every single council seat is contested rather than the usual one-third, are being held in Newcastle, Gateshead, Sunderland, and South Tyneside.
Reform currently has only one councillor in Tyne and Wear, Brian Smith in North Tyneside.
But polling carried out by data analysis firm Bombe predicts that the right-wing party will pick up a further 221 across the area’s five councils in May.
It suggests Reform is on course for substantial majorities in Sunderland and South Tyneside, where Labour face being entirely wiped out under Bombe’s current predictions.
The model also projects Reform to win more than three-quarters of the seats in Gateshead, with Labour and the Lib Dems both reduced to single figures.
And in Newcastle, Reform is predicted to make substantial gains across the East End, West End, and Outer West – taking it to a majority in the council chamber.
Only in North Tyneside, where only a third of seats are up for grabs, are Labour set to remain in power.
Bombe projects Labour to lose 155 seats across Tyne and Wear, the Lib Dems to lose 22, the Greens to drop one, and the Tories to gain three.
But the polling, first reported in the Modern Left blog, does come with significant caveats. The data is based on existing ward boundaries, rather than the new political maps which will come into force at these elections.
Bombe also acknowledged that its model, which will be updated weekly, will not be accurate for all wards. It is based on broad support levels for parties and does not factor in the impact of actual local candidates, with the list of who is standing in each ward yet to be published.
Mike Joslin, Bombe’s co-founder and CEO, said: “Our ward-level model is built by benchmarking predictions against real-world election results. It has called the last 20 by-elections with 85% accuracy, and that gives us confidence when we see the same voter dynamics emerging across Tyne and Wear.
“In the region, we’re projecting a major realignment – with Reform moving into overall control in Newcastle upon Tyne, Gateshead, Sunderland and South Tyneside, while Labour holds North Tyneside, where only a third of seats are up this cycle. Beneath those toplines, there are some genuinely interesting local battles, including tight multi-party contests where the Greens and Liberal Democrats are competitive in specific wards and the outcome could come down to turnout and organisation on the ground.
“Our model updates weekly, and we’re clear about what will make it even stronger over time – including adding in candidate effects once the full lists are confirmed, and incorporating the 2026 boundary changes as soon as the final datasets are available. But the big takeaway remains the same: in many wards across Tyne and Wear, a strong local campaign could be the difference between winning and losing.”