Forest & Aston Villa could trigger unprecedented Champions League loophole as Newcastle United watch on
Newcastle United are eight points above the relegation zone but also eight points from the potential Champions League places with four games to go.
Eddie Howe is still refusing to entertain talk of Newcastle United being in a relegation battle in the Premier League with four games to go.
The Magpies’ ninth defeat in 12 Premier League matches leaves the side just eight points above the relegation zone with Nottingham Forest and West Ham United, who sit below them in the table, left to play in their final four games.
If Newcastle’s poor form were to continue, they risk being dragged into an uncomfortable position heading into the final day match at Fulham next month.
After finishing fifth and qualifying for the Champions League last season, it marks a staggering drop off from Howe and his players.
Yet if just a couple of those nine defeats in 12 had been wins, the Magpies would be firmly in the race for European qualification and potentially the Champions League too. This is due to an unprecedented loophole in UEFA’s rules that could see the top six in the Premier League qualify for Europe’s elite club competition next season.
Next up for Newcastle is Brighton & Hove Albion, who currently occupy that coveted sixth-place position. A win for Howe’s side would close the gap on Brighton to five points and almost certainly secure the side’s Premier League status with three games to go.
The Magpies famously overturned a seven-point gap on Brighton with three games remaining to pip them to the Championship title back in 2017. Another impressive turnaround would be required for Newcastle to secure an unlikely European place this season.
But the reality is the side, even if they won’t admit it themselves, are looking over their shoulder given the form their in.
UEFA set to award six Champions League places to Premier League sides
Remarkably, every side from 16th upwards in the Premier League still has a chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League.
This is due to UEFA’s rules that see the Premier League awarded an extra Champions League place as a ‘European Performance Spot’ (EPS) due to having the best coefficient of any European nation during the 2025/26 campaign.
The top four in the Premier League typically qualifies for the Champions League plus the European Performance Spot which grants qualification to fifth place while the Europa League spot is passed down to sixth.
An extra Europa League spot is granted to the winners of the FA Cup while the winners of the Carabao Cup earn a Conference League place. If the winners of those competitions have already qualified for Europe on league position alone, their respective qualification place would be granted to the next highest finisher in the Premier League.
But there is a further complication which relates to the Champions League place given to the Europa League winners.
How Aston Villa could hand clubs Champions League lifeline
Aston Villa currently sit fifth in the Premier League table with four games to go.
Villa are favourites to win the Europa League this season, which also grants a Champions League qualification spot. Should Unai Emery’s side win the Europa League and finish fifth, where they currently sit, then sixth place would be granted Champions League qualification through the European Performance Spot in accordance with Article 3.08 and 3.09 of the competition regulations.”
That gives every side from Brighton to Nottingham Forest an opportunity to sneak into the Champions League on league position alone. The final European place for the Premier League can only drop as low as eighth this season.
Eighth place is currently occupied by Chelsea on 48 points.
But Forest in particular, could have a big say on how things unfold.
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How Nottingham Forest could have a huge say on relegation and Champions League battle
Forest have potentially the most intriguing end to the season coming up as they face Newcastle at the City Ground next month. A game that could decide whether Newcastle are dragged into a relegation battle or not.
Vitor Pereira’s side also face Aston Villa in the Europa League semi-final. If they win that then sixth place in the Premier League would then become a Europa League place rather than a potential Champions League one.
And if Forest were to go on to win the Europa League, they would be granted England’s sixth Champions League spot for next season.
The only way England won’t have six teams in next season’s Champions League would be if neither Forest nor Villa win the Europa League.
It is also possible for Forest to be relegated, win the Europa League and be playing Champions League football alongside playing in the Championship next season. Crystal Palace are also in the semi-finals of the Conference League with victory in that competition granting a Europa League spot, but that won’t impact the Premier League’s European places.
Either way, an unprecedented European picture could unfold in the final weeks of the season.
Full breakdown of Premier League European places in 2025/26
Standard Premier League season before a ball is kicked
Champions League: 1st to 4th
Europa League: 5th and FA Cup winners/6th (if FA Cup winners qualify for Europa League or Champions League on league position).
Conference League: Carabao Cup winners/6th or 7th (if Carabao Cup winners qualify for Europe on league position)
EPS Premier League season + no English Europa League winner
Champions League: 1st to 5th
Europa League 6th and FA Cup winners/7th
Conference League: 7th or 8th
Aston Villa win Europa League & finish 5th
Champions League: 1st to 6th
Europa League: FA Cup winners/forfeited
Conference League: 7th
EPS season + Nottingham Forest win Europa League
Champions League: 1st to 5th + Nottingham Forest
Europa League 6th and FA Cup winners/7th
Conference League: 7th or 8th
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