Newcastle United can secure Champions League progress without kicking a ball tonight - on one condition
Newcastle United will be looking to secure progress in the Champions League tonight.
Newcastle United host PSV Eindhoven in their penultimate Champions League group phase match.
The Magpies have taken 10 points from their opening six group phase matches and could still progress automatically through to the last-16 with a top-eight finish.
To do so, they would likely have to win their final two group phase matches against PSV and holders Paris Saint-Germain. Picking up six points from their final two games would guarantee a ‘top-eight’ points total, though they could still theoretically miss out on goal difference.
But Newcastle have a healthy +7 goal difference, having beaten Union SG 4-0, Benfica 3-0 and Athletic Club 2-0, while their two losses have been narrow 2-1 defeats against Barcelona and Marseille.
Newcastle United set for Champions League knockout football
At the other end, Newcastle are effectively already guaranteed some form of progress to the knockout stages through finishing in the top 24 of the 36 team group. Finishing ninth to 24th sees teams enter a two-legged seeded knockout round play-off tie next month.
And in that respect, Newcastle could mathematically guarantee Champions League qualification on Wednesday night. A win against PSV would do that, a draw would almost certainly ensure that as well, regardless of results elsewhere, due to Newcastle’s healthy goal difference.
But there is a way Newcastle would essentially secure progress without even kicking a ball tonight.
NUFC can secure progress without kicking a ball
One of the early kick-offs on Wednesday sees Qarabag host Eintracht Frankfurt. Should Qarabag lose to Frankfurt in the early kick-off, they would be unable to surpass Newcastle’s points total, which would secure a top 24 spot for The Magpies.
But even if Qarabag were to get a result against Frankfurt, several other fixtures later on Wednesday night would have to go against Newcastle to stop them from securing progress.
In addition to losing against PSV, to avoid Newcastle progressing tonight, Athletic Club would have to beat Atalanta, Union SG would have to win at Bayern Munich, and Benfica would have to beat Juventus.
It’s an implausible but not impossible series of results that should leave Newcastle looking up and aiming for a top-eight finish rather than looking down and fearing any prospect of elimination.