Newcastle United v Leeds United: The key stats and where the game will be won - and lost
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Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United welcome Leeds United to St. James’ Park on Wednesday evening, with both sides approaching the fixture from very different positions in the Premier League table.
The Magpies sit ninth after 20 games on 29 points, while Leeds find themselves down in 16th with 22 points. While the league positions suggest a clear favourite, some of the stats point towards a contest that may hinge on efficiency of both sides.
Newcastle United
Newcastle’s 25/26 EPL campaign has seen their strongest performances coming on home soil. They have taken 20 points from 10 matches at St. James’ Park, winning six, drawing two and losing two, with a +6 goal difference. Averaging 2.0 PPG at home, it is clear Howe’s men have turned their stadium into a consistent source of results with a recent run of WDWDW.
Since the two sides last met in late August, the game ending goalless, Newcastle have generated an xG of 1.66 per match at home, scoring 1.8 goals per game. Their attacking intent is clear, averaging 13.8 shots per home match, although a relatively modest 13% shot conversion rate leaves room for improvement.
Much of Newcastle’s creativity and goal threat comes through the middle of the pitch. Bruno Guimarães leads the club’s season score sheet with seven goals, matched by Nick Woltemade, showing depth attack.
Youngster Lewis Miley’s three assists this season once more show the Magpies’ strength in central areas, particularly in sustained phases of possession, where they average 50% possession at home. In defence, Newcastle have been solid, home and away. Conceding 1.2 goals per match, aligning with an xG of 1.27 at home, while keeping clean sheets in 30% of games.
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Leeds United
Leeds arrive on Tyneside under pressure, with their away form a clear concern. Daniel Farke's side have managed just one away win all season, collecting six points from 10 road games and conceding an average of 2 goals per away match. Their recent away run of LLDDD reflects their struggle to get a winning result on the road.
Despite this, Leeds’ attacking data suggests they are capable of causing problems. They average 1.40 xG per match, although that drops to 1.20 away from home, where they score just 0.8 goals per game. A 50% failed-to-score rate on the road shows their key problem is turning chances into goals.
However, Leeds star striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been Leeds’ most reliable outlet, scoring eight goals in 18 appearances, followed by Lukas Nmecha who has achieved 4. Creativity has largely come from Brenden Aaronson, who leads the team with three assists, as Leeds look to progress the ball quickly rather than dominate possession, averaging 47% away from home.
Defensively, they remain vulnerable. Their xG against them in away games lands at 1.49 and a low clean sheet rate underline why they have struggled to manage games once they fall behind.
When we look at where the game could be won, the fixture is shaping up as Newcastle’s home control against Leeds’ need for attacking efficiency. If Newcastle convert pressure into first half scoring success, they can dictate the tempo for the second half. However, Leeds’ xG numbers indicate they will get chances, and if they can get the ball to Calvert-Lewin inside the box, they may yet make this a more uncomfortable evening for the hosts than the table suggests.
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