Newcastle United’s slim chance of securing a shock Champions League qualification place was dealt a major blow this week.
The Magpies’ 4-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur moved them up to sixth in the table and 10 points off fifth place with six games remaining. Spurs currently sit fifth but have a difficult fixture schedule that sees them face Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City in their final six matches.
It was thought fifth place could be enough to secure Champions League qualification following a UEFA rule change and an alteration of the competition’s format. For the first time, an extra Champions League place for the top two ranked leagues for the season according to UEFA’s coefficient will be granted based on league position.
This is due to a new Swiss-league format introduced by UEFA which will see four more teams enter the competition, which includes one extra place for the top two performing leagues.
This would mean fifth place in the Premier League would qualify for the Champions League providing it was in the top two coefficient rankings for the season. But that looks as though it won’t be the case with Italy guaranteed an extra spot and Germany almost certain to follow after this week’s results in Europe.
Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and West Ham United all exited Europe this week, leaving Aston Villa in the Conference League as the Premier League’s sole European survivor. Meanwhile, Germany saw Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich progress to the semi-final of the Champions League as well as Bayer Leverkusen reaching the Europa League semi-final.
England have finished in the top two coefficient rankings in six out of the last seven seasons but could even finish as low as fourth this season given France have Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League and Marseille in the Europa League semi-finals.
This week’s results leave England’s coefficient standing at 17.375 while Germany’s is 17.928 with three teams remaining in European competitions compared to England’s one. The maximum number of points England can achieve is 18.375 should Villa win both legs of their semi-final before winning the Conference League final.
In order to surpass that number, the three German clubs would simply need to win one and draw one of their six semi-final matches between them to deny England an extra Champions League place regardless of what Villa do.
The lack of an extra Champions League spot for England would mean only seven teams in Europe next season. As things stand, Newcastle currently occupy the final European place in the Premier League.
Liverpool’s Carabao Cup win means sixth place is currently the Europa Conference League qualification spot. However, that could change depending on how the FA Cup unfolds.
The winners of the FA Cup are granted a Europa League place. But if the winners have already qualified for Europe then that gets passed down into the Premier League.
Should Manchester City win the FA Cup then sixth place will be Europa League and seventh will be Conference League. The same goes if Manchester United or Chelsea finish in the top six.
If they don’t or Coventry City pull of a miracle and win the competition, the European qualification places will remain as they are with sixth place earning Conference League and the FA Cup winners qualifying for the Europa League.
Here are the English clubs ranked by their 2023-24 UEFA coefficient...
1. Manchester City - 28.000
Champions League holders Manchester City had the highest coefficient score of any side in Europe this season before they were knocked out by Real Madrid. Their 28.000 score is still one of the highest, but Madrid have now surpassed that number having progressed to the semi-final.
2. Arsenal - 22.000
Arsenal have a score of 22.000. 13 for winning their Champions League group with four wins and a draw, five for progressing to the last-16 where they earned a further two points for beating Porto in the second leg and progressing on penalties. They earned a point for competing in the quarter-final against Bayern Munich with a first-leg draw awarding them another point before losing the second leg.
3. Liverpool - 20.000
Liverpool have picked up 20.000 coefficient points. The Reds earned 12 points from finishing top of their group with four wins and two losses. A total of five points for winning home and away against Sparta Prague in the last-16 of the competition and a further point for playing the quarter-final against Atalanta, where they were beaten 3-0 but won the second leg, earning another two points despite exiting the competition.
4. Aston Villa - 19.000+
Despite competing in the Europa Conference League, Aston Villa have managed to accumulate 19.000 coefficient points. Villa picked up two points for winning their play-off match against Aberdeen before picking up a further 11 points for advancing as group winners with four wins an a draw. A win and a draw against Ajax in the last-16 followed by a first leg win over Lille in the quarter-final takes Villa up to 18 points. Despite losing the second leg, Villa progressed on penalties, earning another point for reaching the semi-final.