Newcastle United, Leeds & Spurs’ shock Premier League finishing positions - as predicted by data experts

Newcastle United ended a run of four Premier League matches without a win on Tuesday night when they defeated Tottenham Hotspur.

Goals from summer signings Malick Thiaw and Jacob Ramsey secured a 2-1 victory for Eddie Howe’s side as they ended the night in the top half of the Premier League table. The Magpies’ victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium was just their third on the road in the league this season and lifted spirits ahead of a trio of away games against Aston Villa, Qarabag and Manchester City to come in the FA Cup, Champions League and Premier League respectively.

Whilst their recent dip in form has seen them slip behind their rivals in the race for European qualification, there is still hope that they can have a good end to the campaign and at the very least challenge for a spot in Europe next season. It’s likely that a top-five finish will be good enough for Champions League qualification, with any finish in the top-eight set to seal European qualification of some kind, depending on the eventual winners of this season’s FA Cup.

Last season, Newcastle finished 5th with 66 points. To match that total this year, they will need to take another 30 points from their remaining 12 matches.

61 points was enough for Brighton to secure an 8th place finish last year, although Crystal Palace’s victory in the FA Cup final ensured that the Seagulls would miss out on playing in Europe. Newcastle United would need to take 25 points from their 12 remaining matches to reach that total.

The way this season has unfolded so far, though, suggests that a lower points total will be needed for a top-eight finish, and thus probably qualification for European football, than in previous campaigns. At the other end of the table, it seems that more points will be needed for Premier League survival than has been required over the last couple of years, with Spurs’ defeat on Tuesday night dragging them towards relegation danger.

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2025/26 final Premier League table & expected points - predicted by OPTA

Following Tuesday night’s round of Premier League matches, OPTA have published their predicted final 2025/26 Premier League table. For Newcastle United, it suggests that Howe and his team will have to buck the trend and outperform their predictions between now and the end of the campaign if they want to secure a return to Europe via their league finishing position.

1) Arsenal (82.71)

2) Manchester City (73.65)

3) Aston Villa (70.17)

4) Chelsea (62.73)

5) Manchester United (62.36)

6) Liverpool (61.24)

7) Brentford (58.09)

8) AFC Bournemouth (54.21)

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9) Newcastle United (53.07) - 0.68% chance of Champions League qualification, 2.06% chance of Europa League qualification

10) Everton (51.72)

11) Sunderland (50.85)

12) Fulham (50.18)

13) Crystal Palace (49.40)

14) Brighton and Hove Albion (48.50)

15) Leeds United (44.73)

16) Tottenham Hotspur (44.50)

17) Nottingham Forest (41.59)

18) West Ham United (36.12)

19) Burnley (25.76)

20) Wolverhampton Wanderers (19.31)

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