Opta predicts Newcastle's Premier League finish after derby defeat to Sunderland
The Opta Supercomputer has given its latest Premier League table predictions following Newcastle's defeat to rivals Sunderland.
Newcastle United are licking their wounds following a 1-0 defeat in Sunday’s Wear-Tyne derby, but there’s still plenty of time to turn things around.
The Magpies went down at the Stadium of Light thanks to a Nick Woltemade own goal, meaning they’re now winless in their last 10 Premier League games against Sunderland - last beating them in the top flight way back in August 2011.
Eddie Howe’s men now sit 12th in the Premier League table, four points behind Crystal Palace, Liverpool and Sunderland in joint-fifth, and six points adrift of the top four. But with 22 games still to play, there won’t be too much panic about Newcastle’s prospects just yet. But where is Newcastle’s most likely finish in the table off the back of Sunday’s disappointing result? We’ve taken a look at the Opta Supercomputer’s latest predictions to answer that question.
Where will Newcastle United finish in the Premier League this season?
- Arsenal - 68.72%
- Man City - 42.11%
- Aston Villa - 30.87%
- Liverpool - 17.96%
- Chelsea - 13.15%
- Crystal Palace - 14.34%
- Newcastle United - 11.42%
- Man Utd - 11.97%
- Brighton - 11.19%
- Tottenham - 10.99%
- Bournemouth - 10.66%
- Sunderland - 11.12%
- Everton - 10.37%
- Brentford - 11.36%
- Fulham - 14.74%
- Nottingham Forest - 14.53%
- Leeds United - 15.25%
- West Ham United - 30.4%
- Burnley - 55.53%
- Wolves - 85.31%
According to Opta’s statistics-backed simulations, Newcastle are most likely to finish seventh, with an 11.42% probability. The Magpies are now rated at just 5.2% likely to break into the top four, with a higher probability of finishing as low as 13th at 5.71%. Should Opta’s prediction come true, Newcastle will still finish comfortably above Sunderland, despite Sunday’s result, with the Black Cats tipped for 12th place at 11.12%.
At the two extremes of the table, things are pretty clean cut, with Arsenal given a 68.72% probability of winning the title after a rather fortunate 2-1 win over Wolves on Saturday - the latter are now 85.31% likely to finish bottom after taking just two points from their opening 16 matches. Rob Edwards’ side have just a 0.89% probability of finishing in 17th in an unlikely run to safety.
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What next for Newcastle United?
Newcastle fans won’t enjoy themselves at work in the coming days following Sunday’s miserable derby defeat, with just two shots on target and six shots overall throughout the 90 minutes, to the tune of 0.24 xG according to FotMob. But the Magpies don’t have to wait long to put things right, with Fulham coming to St. James’ Park in the quarter-final of the EFL Cup - with Newcastle still going strong in their defence of that title.
Attention then returns to the Premier League, with Newcastle seeing out 2025 at home to Chelsea, and then away to Manchester United and Burnley.