UEFA rule change set to impact Newcastle United after Liverpool & West Ham blow

Newcastle United moved into the Premier League’s top six for the first time in 2024 following Saturday’s 4-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur at St James’ Park.

With six games remaining, The Magpies are officially back in the European places. As things stand, a sixth place finish would secure qualification for next season’s Europa Conference League, but there is still plenty that can change between now and the end of the season.

Sixth place is currently a Conference League place due to Carabao Cup winners Liverpool guaranteed to finish in the top five this season. Fifth place is set for Europa League qualification while the top four qualify for the Champions League.

However, if the FA Cup winners have also already qualified for Europe based on the league position, then sixth place in the Premier League will qualify for the Europa League and seventh will qualify for the Conference League.

But there is a chance the FA Cup winners could finish outside of the European places this season. The semi-finalists are Manchester United, who sit seventh, league leaders Manchester City, ninth-placed Chelsea and Championship side Coventry City.

If the FA Cup winners finish outside of the European places, that club will qualify for the Europa League and sixth place will remain a Conference League spot.

However, a UEFA rule change for next season adds yet another variable to consider. For the first time, teams finishing fifth in certain leagues could qualify for the Champions League based on league position alone.

This is due to a new Swiss-league format introduced by UEFA which will see four more teams enter the competition, which includes one extra place for the top two performing leagues.

How the extra Champions League place works for 2024-25

The two leagues whose clubs perform the best overall in the Champions League, Europa League and Europa Conference League competitions in 2023-24 will be granted an extra Champions League spot for the 2024-25 campaign.

England currently sit behind Italy and Germany in the 2023-24 UEFA country coefficients that will decide which two leagues get the extra spot. While England still has a chance of moving into the top two coefficient places, that chance is looking somewhat precarious after defeats for Liverpool and West Ham United in the Europa League quarter-finals.

Liverpool’s shock 3-0 defeat to Italian side Atalanta and West Ham’s 2-0 loss to newly-crowned German champions Bayer Leverkusen could prove significant in the coefficient rankings should they be unable to turn things around in the second leg.

Manchester City and Arsenal’s progress in the Champions League is also uncertain after first leg draws against Real Madrid and Bayern Munich. Aston Villa are the only English side to have won the first leg of their European quarter-final as they beat Lille in the Conference League.

Despite no Italian teams remaining in the Champions League, Serie A is almost certain to be granted an extra qualification place for next season with a current coefficient of 18.428. Italy have at least one side guaranteed to reach the semi-final of the Europa League as AC Milan face AS Roma in the quarter-final.

And with Atalanta leading Liverpool 3-0 heading into the second leg, two sides in the final four looks likely. Fiorentina are also in the latter stages of the Conference League.

Germany, who have a coefficient of 16.785, have just three teams remaining in Europe this season but all remain in with a chance of reaching their respective semi-finals. Bayern Munich will be looking to get past Arsenal while Borussia Dortmund have to overturn a 2-1 deficit against Atletico Madrid in order to reach the final four in the Champions League.

England’s coefficient currently stands at 16.750 while Spain are fourth with a coefficient of 15.062.

How many UEFA coefficient points each English side have contributed this season

Teams competing in European competition earn two points for a win and one point for a draw. In qualifying rounds, it is one point for a win and half a point for a draw.

Newcastle earned a total of eight points for competing in the Champions League in 2023-24. The Magpies earned four points for reaching the group stage, two for beating Paris Saint Germain 4-1 and a further two for drawing with the Ligue 1 side and AC Milan.

Teams who reach the last-16 of the Champions League earn five points with an additional point for progressing to each further round. In the Europa League, there are no points awarded for participation however group winners earn four points and runners-up earn two.

An additional point is awarded for progressing from the last-16 onwards. In the Conference League it is two points for group winners, one point for group runners-up and one additional point for teams who reach the semi-final and final of the competition.

To calculate a nation’s coefficient, each club from that nation’s points total is combined and then divided by the number of sides competing in Europe that season.

Here’s a breakdown of the English teams this season...

Manchester United: 7.000 points

Newcastle United: 8.000 points

Brighton & Hove Albion: 16.000 points

Aston Villa: 18.000 points*

West Ham United: 18.000 points*

Liverpool: 18.000 points*

Arsenal: 22.000 points*

Manchester City: 27.000 points*

*points total subject to increase due to side still competing in European competition

As things stand, England have accumulated a total of 134.000 points this season which leaves a coefficient score of 16.750 when divided by the number of clubs competing.

What this could mean for Newcastle United?

A potential extra Champions League place may not sound like it would benefit Newcastle this season as they currently sit 10 points off the top five, but it would have a knock-on impact in terms of Europa League and Conference League qualification.

Should fifth place qualify for the Champions League this season, the automatic Europa League spot drops to sixth place. And then the Conference League spot will drop to seventh with the variable of potentially dropping to eighth if the FA Cup winners have already qualified for European competition.

So a top eight finish could still be enough for Newcastle to secure European qualification for a second successive season, but it would be dependent on results not only in Europe but in the FA Cup as well.