The latest Sunderland news, via Lucy Scothern

Sunderland travel to the Gtech Community Stadium on Wednesday evening to face Brentford.

The two sides are currently level with 30 points, separated by just one place and a +2 goal advantage in the Premier League table. With Brentford seventh and Sunderland eighth after 20 games, from the outside looking in, the fixture seems too close to call. To understand where the game could be won or lost, let’s look at the stats both teams have put up in their Premier League campaigns so far.

Brentford:

So far, the Bees’ season has been defined by their home form. Keith Andrews’ side have taken 21 points from 10 home matches, winning six, drawing 3 and losing just once with a +10 goal difference at the Gtech. With a home PPG average of 2.0, compared to just 1.2 away, sets a strong precedent for Regis le Bris’ men to contend with.

Offensively, Brentford are efficient in the league at home. They score 2.0 goals per match at the Gtech, converting 19% of their shots, a strong return from an average of just over 10 shots per game, Their xG at home (1.31) broadly matches their output, suggesting their goal return is sustainable rather than luck-driven.

Much of Brentford’s threat comes from Igor Thiago, who has scored 14 goals from his 20 appearances this season. The Brazilian is supported by teammate Kevin Schade who’s name has graced the score sheet 6 times in his 19 league appearances respectively. Brentford may not wholly dominate possession at home with an average of 43%, but they are effective in attack, often striking quickly in transition. As of the end of October, they ranked first in the league for % of forward passes with 37.8%, closely followed by the Black Cats in second with 37.3%.

Defensively, however, there are vulnerabilities. Brentford’s xG for teams visiting the Gtech stands at 1.53, higher than their goals conceded– 1.0 per match, with player ratings on WhoScored.com showing Sunderland’s defensive power outweighing the Bee’s backline 4-1.

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Sunderland:

The Black Cats arrive in west London with an impressive overall defensive record. They have conceded just 0.95 goals per match and have kept clean sheets in 35% of games, accumulating only 4 losses all season. However, unbeaten record at home still intact, all 4 of these losses were on the road. Sunderland have scored just 0.5 goals per away game, holding a modest xG of just 1.06.

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However, with the announcement of Dan Ballard’s return from injury and captain Granit Xhaka’s assist record (5 in 20 games), Le Bris’ men should not be underestimated. With an away possession average of 42%, Sunderland almost matches Brentford’s home possession, with their sustained attacking pressure a key contributor. Wilson Isidor remains the top scorer this season with 4 goals under his belt, accompanied by fellow striker Brian Brobbey who seems to be gaining momentum with every match, highlighted by his strong performance last weekend where he scored the 80th minute equaliser.

Overall, the match is likely to be decided by Brentford’s home attack versus Sunderland’s defensive resilience. If Brentford can turn territorial pressure into early goals, their strong shot conversion rate could put the game beyond Sunderland. However, if Sunderland keep the scoreline tight, their ability to draw games and score last minute winners could come to the forefront once again.

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