How Sunderland's xG attack record compares to Premier League rivals after Aston Villa draw

Sunderland have made a promising start to life back in the Premier League, but it’s undoubtedly their strong defensive record that has propped them up.

The Black Cats have conceded just four goals in five games so far following their 1-1 draw with Aston Villa on Sunday, with the only sides allowing fewer being three 2024/25 trophy winners in Newcastle, Tottenham Hotspur and Crystal Palace, and last season’s Premier League runners-up Arsenal.

By contrast, Sunderland have scored just six goals, with only seven teams managing fewer. Regis Le Bris’ men have still managed to climb to seventh in the Premier League table, but the Frenchman will be keen to see more offensive output soon.

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How does Sunderland’s expected goals compare to the rest of the Premier League?

Sunderland have, at least, been efficient with the chances they’ve created so far, with their six goals coming from 51 shots and 4.95 expected goals - according to Whoscored’s xG modelling. The performances in both metrics are toward the bottom of the Premier League, while the latter shows an xG overperformance of 1.05 up to now.

1. Man Utd (9.98)
2. Chelsea (9.35)
3. Crystal Palace (8.75)
4. Arsenal (8.46)
5. Man City (8.43)
6. Liverpool (7.73)
7. Bournemouth (7.63)
8. Brighton (7.52)
9. Everton (6.74)
10. Tottenham Hotspur (6.39)
11. Fulham (6.22)
12. Brentford (6.12)
13. West Ham (5.8)
14. Nottingham Forest (5.43)
15. Sunderland (4.95)
16. Newcastle (4.93)
17. Leeds (4.61)
18. Wolves (4.39)
19. Aston Villa (4.31)
20. Burnley (4.17)

How much have Sunderland and their Premier League rivals overperformed their xG?

As mentioned, Sunderland have overperformed their xG by 1.05 so far. That clinical return has been exceeded by just three teams to this point, one of which are defending champions Liverpool, who have won all five of their matches to start the campaign.

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By contrast, Manchester United have underperformed their xG by a league-worst 5.98, while the Black Cats’ arch rivals Newcastle have scored 1.93 fewer goals than they should have.

1. Liverpool (3.27)
2. Tottenham Hotspur (2.61)
3. Arsenal (1.54)
4. Sunderland (1.05)
5. Burnley (0.83)
6. Chelsea (0.65)
7. Man City (0.57)
8. Brentford (-0.12)
9. Nottingham Forest (-0.43)
10. Leeds (0.61)
11. Everton (-0.74)
12. West Ham (-0.80)
13. Wolves (-1.39)
14. Brighton (-1.52)
15. Bournemouth (-1.63)
16. Newcastle (-1.93)
17. Fulham (-2.22)
18. Crystal Palace (-2.75)
19. Aston Villa (-3.31)
20. Man Utd (-5.98)

Perhaps most worrying for Le Bris is the fact that Wilson Isidor is responsible for 50% of his side’s Premier League goals so far this season, with his equaliser against Villa on Sunday his third strike of the campaign - only Erling Haaland (6) has more. Daniel Ballard, Eliezer Mayenda and Enzo Le Fee all have one goal each, but the latter’s strike was from the penalty spot, with the Black Cats’ 4.18 non-penalty xG higher than only Burnley (4.17) and Leeds (3.84).

Sunderland will look to show a little more attacking flair when they travel to Nottingham Forest on Saturday, with the Tricky Trees conceding nine goals in the Premier League this season - as well as seven in three games across all competitions under Ange Postecoglou.

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