The exciting stats that show Sunderland's start is no fluke - and a strong warning from Régis Le Bris

It has been a start to the season better than anyone associated with Sunderland would have dared to predict.

The Black Cats had been quietly confident behind the scenes that their squad was far better than last season's 16th-placed finish suggested, and that in Régis Le Bris they had identified the coach who could show it. These are still early days in the season but so far that faith is being vindicated: Sunderland are the only team across the entire EFL with a 100% record heading into the first international break. Their goal difference of +9 is also the best across the three divisions.

Most encouragingly, Sunderland's performance level has fully merited their points return and here we can explain exactly why...

The heartening defensive statistic

Were it not for Luke O'Nien's late own goal at Fratton Park, the Black Cats would be going into the international break having not conceded a single goal. It would have been an almost unprecedented start to a campaign defensively, and the evidence backs up the feeling that Anthony Patterson is being exceptionally well protected by his team mates in Le Bris' out-of-possession shape.

Expected goals is a statistic that aims to better understand the balance of a game by assessing how likely each shot is to find the net. Each shot attributed a decimal of 1 based on a number of factors such as the angle, the distance to goal etc. The closer to 1, the bigger the chance. It's not a perfect metric, but more accurately determines how dangerous a team is than looking at the possession or simple shots data.

Sunderland's expected-goals against shows their early record is no fluke. They have conceded just 1.9 expected goals across their four games according to FotMob (from which all data in this article is drawn), which is the best in the division ahead of Leeds United on 2.6. It's a hugely impressive platform from which to build.

Interestingly, Sunderland rank tenth for possession won in the final third of the pitch. So while Le Bris is implementing an aggressive approach and a high press, his team are being selective as to when they deploy it. Part of that is to protect against fatigue in a long campaign, and part of it is to ensure they can quickly protect their box when the opposition plays through them. So far, so good.

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Promising signs in attack - with some room to improve

Sunderland's record of ten goals is matched only by Burnley, but what do the statistics say about their general attacking play? Unlike in defence, the data suggests that Sunderland's goal glut from the opening four games might be a little unsustainable moving forward. Their expected-goals tally according to FotMob is 6.2, suggesting that they're generally over performing in the final third as this things stand.

Broadly, though, they're still threatening the opposition goal more than enough to produce positive results. That expected-goals number is still the fourth best in the division, behind only Leeds United, Millwall and Middlesbrough. The other key attacking metrics also suggest that they're one of the better teams in the division going forward. Their average of 4.3 shots on target is joint-fifth with Blackburn Rovers, behind only Middlesbrough, Bristol City, Leeds United and QPR. They're third behind just Leeds United and Millwall for 'big chances' created across their four games and while they're eighth for the number of touches they've had in the opposition box, their tally of 102 isn't far off Sheffield United's 109 which is the third best in the division. Le Bris has built an impressive defensive structure but so far, it's not coming at the expense of attacking threat.

Why these numbers are even more impressive than they first look

When you put these numbers into context, they're actually even more impressive than you would first realise. Consider that Sunderland have not been trailing at any stage so far this season. In their opening game of the campaign, they were leading from the 18th minute of the game. In their second game the 11th, their third the 26th and their fourth the 31st.

With the onus on the opposition to chase the game, you'd expect them to be forcing far more opportunities and for Sunderland's attacking numbers to drop off as the hold onto their lead. That just hasn't been happening so far, and is testament again to just how well drilled they are under Le Bris out of possession especially.

A strong warning from Le Bris - and the challenge ahead

While encouraged by their start, there's no complacency behind the scenes at Sunderland. One of the key challenges they'll face moving forward is team's adapting to their approach in the weeks ahead, and it seems likely that particularly at the Stadium of Light there will be some who try and counter those rapid breaks from deep by allowing Sunderland more of the ball. The Black Cats have had less possession than their opponent in all four games so far, and breaking down a low block will be a different test that we've not seen them put through under Le Bris.

Le Bris also knows that his biggest challenge with such a young squad is consistency, something he hopes the players themselves will understand after what was such a turbulent campaign last time out.

"It is a balance between confidence and the consistency that we need to keep to create the conditions to win," he said.

"I’m sure that they will remember last season. That was very important for them because they experienced many bad and good situations. Now they know that if we aren’t consistent as a team, if we don’t attack together or are selfish, we will lose. The balance at the moment is OK but we need to stay very consistent."