Newcastle United and Arsenal have been ‘lucky’ this season as Man Utd underperform - according to data experts

Eddie Howe’s side entered the second international break of the season in 7th place having taken 12 points from their first seven games of the season. The Magpies finished in 7th last campaign, but will be keen to improve on that and guarantee themselves a return to European competition.

Although they only picked up a point at Goodison Park on Saturday, Newcastle probably put in their best 90 minute performance of the season and were unfortunate not to come away with all three points, particularly after Anthony Gordon’s missed penalty. However, despite that dominant display in a draw, the Magpies still rank as one of the Premier League’s over performing teams.

According to OPTA, the underlying expected goals (xG) data suggests that Newcastle United should actually be sat in 11th place with 10 points, rather than in 7th place having collected 12 points. Only Arsenal (who are sat in 3rd place, rather than 8th as the data suggests they should be) are overperforming more on the table than the Magpies this season according to the data.

Bournemouth, meanwhile, have underperformed the most and are sat six places below their expected position. Spurs, who threw away a 2-0 lead against Brighton at the weekend, are five places below where the data suggests they should be, whilst Manchester United are sat four places lower than expected.

Southampton, who enjoyed huge swathes of possession against Newcastle United on the opening day of the season but came away pointless, are sat three places below where they should be, according to the data, and have taken almost six points fewer than expected so far this campaign.

To calculate this data, the xG of every match is simulated 10,000 times to see how many times a club is expected to win/lose/draw a particular game before the expected points are calculated according to those results. It may not be an exact science, however, in Newcastle’s case, it does seem to reflect the belief that Howe’s side haven’t been performing at their very best level but have done well to be sat in 7th heading into the international break.