Nottingham Forest & Aston Villa could trigger unprecedented UEFA rule - boost for Newcastle United
Newcastle United’s European dream is still just about alive with three games left to play in the Premier League.
Newcastle United’s 3-1 win over Brighton & Hove Albion on Saturday kept the side’s slim European chances alive with three Premier League games remaining.
The Magpies are in the unique position of still being able to mathematically be relegated from the Premier League or qualify for the Champions League with three games left to play.
It has to be said that the chances of either happening are very small, but the chances improve significantly if we’re talking about European qualification via the Europa League or Conference League.
Here’s a full explanation of the situation...
Newcastle United could still be relegated
Newcastle sit nine points above the relegation zone with three games remaining. The maths is simple; should West Ham United win each of their final three games and Newcastle lose their final three and the Hammers overturn a 17 goal difference gap, then Newcastle could go down.
It’s highly unlikely, even more unlikely when you consider the fact that Tottenham Hotspur would also have to win their final three games while Nottingham Forest would also have to close a three-point gap, Leeds United a two-point gap and Crystal Palace (who have a game in hand) a two-point gap.
The chances of all that happening, although not impossible, are almost nil.
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Newcastle United could still get Champions League football
Despite losing nine of their last 13 matches and sitting 13th in the table, Newcastle arguably have a better chance of securing Champions League football than being relegated, though it is also unlikely.
The Magpies can’t finish in the top four places, usually awarded with Champions League qualification. They also can’t equal their fifth-place finish from last season which handed them Champions League qualification through a European Performance Spot.
That European Performance Spot is in place once again this season though its current occupants, Aston Villa, could play a significant role as to whether it drops further down the table.
Fifth place will only be granted a European Performance Spot should Aston Villa fail to win the Europa League. If Villa overturn their 1-0 semi-final defecit to Nottingham Forest and go on to win the competition, while also finishing fifth, they would automatically qualify for the Champions League and European Performance Spot would drop to sixth for the first time ever.
Newcastle are seven points off sixth place with three games remaining, meaning they realistically need to win each of their final three matches and hope the majority of results of the sides above go their way.
Again, it’s very unlikely but still mathematically possible with three games left.
But what about European qualification in general? Well, there is even more up in the air in that respect.
NUFC could still qualify for Europe
Newcastle are currently six points off Brentford in seventh, three wins from their final three games could see them sneak into that position which is currently set to award Conference League qualification.
Seventh could change to a Europa League spot if Manchester City win the FA Cup (or Chelsea win and finish in the top seven) and Villa fails to win the Europa League.
The Conference League spot would only drop to eighth place if the FA Cup winners are already qualified for Europe and Aston Villa either fail to win the Europa League or finish in the top four.
Newcastle are currently five points off Brighton in eighth with three games remaining. It’s a more realistic gap to close but one that would still realistically need at least two wins from the final three games.
And their next opponents, Nottingham Forest, who face Aston Villa in the Europa League semi-final second leg on Thursday, could have a major say in how everything unfolds.