Newcastle United 2025-26 UEFA coefficient compared to Aston Villa & Man Utd ahead of Champions League draw

The win takes Newcastle up to third in the Premier League table with two games left to play. Another point in their final two games guarantees a top six finish while another three would effectively guarantee a top five finish and Champions League qualification.

Newcastle travel to Arsenal on Sunday (4:30pm kick-off) before hosting Everton at St James’ Park on the final day of the season.

Opta Experts have predicted Newcastle have a 93.91% chance of qualifying for the Champions League with two games remaining. To miss out, The Magpies would have to fail to win their remaining two games with results for Manchester City, Aston Villa and Chelsea going against them.

Newcastle United’s job not done - yet

While Champions League qualification looks likely for Newcastle, head coach Eddie Howe was keen to stress that his side’s job is not done yet. A win for Newcastle against Arsenal would take them up to second in the Premier League while also securing Champions League qualification.

Speaking after the Chelsea win, Howe said: “It’s a massive win for us. We knew that before the game, we knew the importance. It’s so tight, and that has put us in a stronger position, but it’s still very tight and we’ve got two games where we have to keep our focus and try to get as many points as we can.

“We still have two games to go and lots of twists and turns that could be around the corner.

“I think we can't sit back and look at it that way, we have to drive forward, reflect on our next game and make sure we're ready for Arsenal because that is a very, very tough match and we know how tight it is with the teams around us, so we're not taking anything for granted.

“I have to say, the players have been magnificent in that respect for a long, long time, but we go again next week.”

Newcastle United’s UEFA coefficient compared to Premier League rivals

Although Newcastle are guaranteed European football for next season and will be looking to compete in the Champions League once again, they could face another difficult draw due to their UEFA coefficient.

Although Newcastle were in the Champions League last season, they finished bottom of their group with just one win in six matches. Before that the club had spent over a decade out of Europe so went into the Champions League draw with one of the lowest coefficients, which resulted in a difficult draw.

Newcastle were paired against Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain who went on to reach the final and semi-final last season, respectively, as well as seven-time winners AC Milan.

While Newcastle could still end up finishing second in the Premier League this season and qualifying for the Champions League, their UEFA coefficient is dwarfed by their Premier League rivals.

Newcastle will enter Europe next season with a coefficient of 22.924, which is the base level coefficient for any Premier League side. Nottingham Forest will also have the same coefficient in Europe next season having not competed on the continent for 30 years.

Newcastle’s 2023-24 Champions League campaign only granted them a coefficient score of 8.000, which is under England’s default association score of 22.924.

In terms of UEFA coefficients, Newcastle only have the 11th highest of any Premier League team as things stand. Coefficients are calculated based on performance in European competitions over the previous five seasons.

Here are coefficient rankings in the Premier League:

1. Manchester City - 137.750
2. Liverpool - 125.500
3. Chelsea - 107.000
4. Manchester United - 102.500
5. Arsenal - 98.000
6. West Ham United - 69.000
7. Tottenham Hotspur - 68.250
8. Aston Villa - 47.250
9. Leicester City - 23.000
10. Brighton & Hove Albion - 16.000 (22.924)
11. Newcastle United - 8.000 (22.924)

What does it all mean for Newcastle United?

Newcastle’s relatively low coefficient score means they would be in pot four in the Champions League draw should they qualify. As a result, another difficult run of European fixtures awaits them in theory.

Interestingly, should 16th placed Manchester United win the Europa League and qualify for the Champions League, they would be put straight into pot one based on their performances in European competitions over the past five seasons.

Either way, regular European football is essential for Newcastle when it comes to building a coefficient and being seeded higher in future draws.

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