We simulated Newcastle United’s Champions League group stage draw 1,000 times - here are the results

With all 32 teams now confirmed, the Champions League group stage draw will take place in Monaco from 5pm BST on Thursday, August 31. Newcastle will be in pot four of the draw.

Given there are so many different variables to the draw, it is incredibly complicated to work out the exact probability of Newcastle being drawn against certain teams, but there are ways to work out which teams they are more likely to face.

For example, clubs can’t be drawn in the same group as clubs from the same nation, meaning Newcastle won’t be drawn against Manchester City, Manchester United or Arsenal in the group stage. But with Man United and Arsenal both in pot two, there are just six possible teams The Magpies can be drawn against from that pot.

Newcastle are in pot four and can’t be drawn against teams from their own pot which includes Young Boys, Real Sociedad, Galatasaray, Celtic, Union Berlin, Lens and Royal Antwerp.

The pots are as follows...

Pot one

Manchester City

Sevilla

Barcelona

Napoli

Bayern Munich

Paris Saint-Germain

Benfica

Feyenoord

Pot two

Real Madrid

Manchester United

Inter Milan

Borussia Dortmund

Atletico Madrid

RB Leipzig

Porto

Pot three

Shakhtar Donetsk

Red Bull Salzburg

AC Milan

Braga

Lazio

Red Star Belgrade

PSV Eindhoven

Copenhagen

Pot four

Newcastle United

Young Boys

Real Sociedad

Galatasaray

Celtic

Union Berlin

Lens

Royal Antwerp

Champions League group stage draw simulated

Ahead of the group stage draw, supporters can enjoy simulating the draw online. But we have taken things a step further and not just simulated the draw once to see Newcastle’s potential opponents, but 1,000 times.

With that we can work out the most frequent teams The Magpies have been drawn against. While this may have no reflection on the actual draw itself, it could provide a guide as to which teams the club are more likely to be drawn against.

Out of 1,000 draws, Newcastle were drawn in the same group as Feyenoord from pot one 175 times, Borussia Dortmund from pot two 218 times and Red Star Belgrade from pot three 138 times - making that their most frequently drawn group based on our simulation.

Although Newcastle had the same chance of being drawn against Dortmund and RB Leipzig from pot two, the former were drawn in the same group as Newcastle 80 more times than Leipzig.

Here’s how many times each team were drawn against Newcastle in our 1,000 simulated Champions League group stage draws

Pot one

Manchester City - 0

Sevilla - 174

Barcelona - 133

Napoli - 134

Bayern Munich - 119

Paris Saint-Germain - 149

Benfica - 125

Feyenoord - 175

Pot two

Real Madrid - 160

Manchester United - 0

Inter Milan - 158

Borussia Dortmund - 218

Atletico Madrid - 197

RB Leipzig - 138

Porto - 129

Pot three

Shakhtar Donetsk - 137

Red Bull Salzburg - 140

AC Milan - 111

Braga - 133

Lazio - 101

Red Star Belgrade - 138

PSV Eindhoven - 108

Copenhagen - 132