How Newcastle United's xG attack record compares to Premier League rivals after Nottingham Forest win
Newcastle United beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 in the Premier League on Sunday, but how does that affect their xG?
Newcastle United picked up a crucial 2-0 win against Nottingham Forest on Sunday that should go a long way toward getting their Premier League campaign on track.
The Magpies have made a slow start domestically, taking just six points from their first six league outings. However, Sunday’s victory - which came courtesy of second-half strikes from Bruno Guimaraes and Nick Woltemade - will serve as a huge confidence boost.
Even more prominent is the fact that this was just the second time this season that Newcastle have scored more than once in a single Premier League match, and the first time since that heart-breaking late defeat against Liverpool in August. But while Newcastle’s lack of goals this season has been a frustration - they’ve hit the net just six times this season with only Nottingham Forest and Burnley (5) managing fewer - the underlying numbers suggest things will improve soon.
How does Newcastle’s xG for compare to the rest of the Premier League?
In reality, Newcastle are right near the bottom for attacking output this season, but they shouldn’t be. The Magpies have generated 9.27 xG so far, placing them comfortably in mid-table. Things should improve when Yoane Wissa is eventually fit, helping Woltemade shoulder the burden - the German has scored half of Newcastle’s Premier League goals so far this season.
- Manchester United (14.02)
- Crystal Palace (13.85)
- Arsenal (13.7)
- Liverpool (12.92)
- Chelsea (12.28)
- Manchester City (12.25)
- Brighton (10.79)
- Everton (9.8)
- Bournemouth (9.66)
- Brentford (9.55)
- Newcastle United (9.27)
- Leeds United (8.75)
- Tottenham Hotspur (8.14)
- Fulham (8.13)
- Sunderland (8.1)
- West Ham United (7.97)
- Nottingham Forest (7.45)
- Aston Villa (6.95)
- Wolves (6.1)
- Burnley (5.22)
How much have Newcastle and their Premier League rivals overperformed their xG?
Tottenham Hotspur are the biggest xG overperformers so far this season, scoring 3.86 goals more than projected. The outlook here is not quite as bright for Newcastle, who have underperformed their xG by 3.27 - only Crystal Palace and Manchester United have underperformed more, by a whopping 4.85 and 7.02, respectively.
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However, Eddie Howe can also take optimism from that statistic, with his side having little problem generating chances. Should that continue, you’d back Newcastle to start taking them with more regularity soon - especially, as mentioned, when summer signing Wissa is available for selection.
- Tottenham Hotspur (3.86)
- Burnley (1.78)
- Bournemouth (1.34)
- Manchester City (0.75)
- Chelsea (0.72)
- Arsenal (0.3)
- Liverpool (0.08)
- Brentford (-0.55)
- Brighton (-0.79)
- Everton (-0.8)
- Aston Villa (-0.95)
- Sunderland (-1.1)
- Leeds United (-1.75)
- West Ham United (-1.97)
- Wolves (-2.1)
- Fulham (-2.13)
- Nottingham Forest (-2.45)
- Newcastle United (-3.27)
- Crystal Palace (-4.85)
- Manchester United (-7.02)
Newcastle United will be eyeing up their first game back from the international break as an opportunity to get some more goals on the board, with Brighton conceding 10 times in the Premier League so far - the sixth-highest amount in the top-flight.
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