Newcastle United's Champions League chances assessed by stats experts ahead of West Ham United visit

The memories of competing in the Champions League remain fresh in the mind for Newcastle United supporters.

Just under 16 months have passed since Eddie Howe’s faced the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund in the group stage of the competition after claiming a shock top four finish in the Premier League during the previous season. A hard-earned goalless draw in Milan kicked off the campaign before PSG were swept aside on a night for the ages at St James Park - but any thoughts of progressing into the knockout stages were ended as Eddie Howe’s side claimed just one point from their remaining four fixtures.

After missing out on a place in the Europa League last season by the narrowest of margins, Newcastle are now back in the hunt for a Champions League spot - although Magpies boss Howe has already warned there is plenty of competition in the top half of the Premier League.

Speaking after last month’s 4-3 home win against Nottingham Forest, Howe said: "I think there’s a host of teams that will have that feeling. We’re in there fighting and I back us if we’re fighting and showing our best qualities, as we did in that first half. We’ll hopefully be there towards the end fighting and competing for that place, but nothing is guaranteed. "It’s such a competitive league this year and you can see that from our recent home games."

Newcastle’s subsequent defeat at Premier League leaders and Carabao Cup Final opponents Liverpool dealt a blow to their top five hopes and results over the weekend have now left Howe’s men sat in ninth place in the table ahead of Monday night’s visit to West Ham United. The likes of Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Brighton and Hove Albion all claimed wins over the last 48 hours - although the Magpies can move back into the top six if they can secure three points against the Hammers.

There are as many as ten clubs that can consider themselves to be contenders for a top five place and that should be enough to land a place at European football’s top table as the performance of English club’s in European competitions this season has boosted the Premier League’s coefficient and should be enough to see the Premier League land a fifth Champions League spot. But how do Newcastle’s chances of returning to UEFA’s elite cup competition compare to their rivals across the Premier League?

What are Newcastle United’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League?

1. Liverpool - 100.0% 2. Arsenal - 99.60% 3. Manchester City - 70.32% 4. Nottingham Forest - 57.34% 5. Chelsea - 36.32% 6. Newcastle United - 18.08% 7. Brighton and Hove Albion - 9.15% 8. Bournemouth - 5.78% 9. Aston Villa - 2.92% 10. Fulham - 0.37% 11. Crystal Palace - 0.10% 12. Brentford - 0.02% 13-20. Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, West Ham United, Everton, Wolverhampton Wanderers, Everton, Ipswich Town, Leicester City, Southampton - all 0.0%

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