Newcastle United legend Alan Shearer delivers surprising Sunderland verdict

Alan Shearer has given his verdict on Sunderland’s chances of Premier League survival this season.

The Black Cats beat Sheffield United in last season’s Championship play-off final to end an eight-year absence from the English top flight. After a summer of lavish spending, Regis Le Bris’ men have made a great start to life back in the big time, taking eight points from their first five games to sit seventh, just two points adrift of Arsenal in second.

Alan Shearer rates Sunderland survival chances

Home form has been key to Sunderland’s early-season success, with seven of their eight points so far coming at the Stadium of Light in wins over West Ham and Brentford, and a 1-1 comeback draw against Aston Villa despite going down to 10 men in the 33rd minute. After that match, Villa boss Unai Emery lavished praise on the Black Cats faithful.

By contrast, Sunderland are yet to score in their two away games, losing 2-0 to Burnley before a solid but unspectacular goalless draw at Crystal Palace. Newcastle United legend Shearer isn’t exactly popular on Wearside, but supporters will still love to hear him predicting a season of safety for Sunderland, based on their home form.

“At home, Sunderland are unbeaten, and when you look at the three promoted teams, they've made a right good start,” Shearer told Betfair. “When you compare it to last season, where teams have struggled and it's been a long time since teams have got the first win, whereas Burnley and Leeds got a great result against Wolves and Sunderland as well, going down to ten men.

“Sunderland have made a great start to the season, and I think what message that sends out is that anyone going to those three teams will find things tough. “I think it's still very early, but a lot of people would've changed their opinion already and say that Sunderland can stay up, because of their home form, they've a really good chance of staying up.

“The home form was always going to be key to any of the promoted teams. Sunderland will be absolutely delighted with the start they've made.”

Where are Sunderland statistically most likely to finish this season?

Most Sunderland fans and neutrals share Shearer’s optimism when it comes to their chances of survival in 2025/26. However, the same cannot be said for football stats website Opta, whose predictive model is still tipping the Black Cats to finish 18th, going down with Wolves and fellow newly-promoted side Burnley.

1. Liverpool (60.51%)
2. Arsenal (32.33%)
3. Man City (19.33%)
4. Chelsea (13.3%)
5. Crystal Palace (11.26%)
6. Newcastle (9.71%)
7. Tottenham (9.29%)
8. Bournemouth (8.77%)
9. Aston Villa (7.78%)
10. Brighton (8.81%)
11. Everton (7.98%)
12. Man Utd (7.88%)
13. Fulham (7.82%)
14. Nottingham Forest (8.35%)
15. Brentford (9.2%)
16. Leeds (10.86%)
17. West Ham (11.75%)
18. sunderland">Sunderland (14.95%)
19. Burnley (17.87%)
20. Wolves (33%)

Sunderland have a 14.95% chance of finishing 18th, with their most likely placing outside the relegation zone being 17th at 12.75%. The Black Cats will hope to improve those chances when they travel to Nottingham Forest this Saturday.