Supercomputer predicts when Newcastle United will secure Premier League safety ahead of Leeds United and Everton

Newcastle United have made big strides towards securing Premier League safety since the turn of the year – but they aren’t mathematically safe just yet.

Eddie Howe’s side sit 14th in the Premier League table, nine points clear of the relegation zone with nine games left to play.

It is still possible for United to be dragged back into a relegation scrap, but that’s not what FiveThirtyEight’s supercomputer is predicting.

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In fact, the data experts estimate Newcastle will secure safety with games to spare and finish the campaign 14th on 40 points.

Bruno Guimaraes of Newcastle United celebrates scoring their sides second goal of the game during the Premier League match between Southampton and Newcastle United at St Mary's Stadium on March 10, 2022 in Southampton, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)

The Magpies are predicted to reach that 40 point total following the match at Norwich City on April 23.

The supercomputer uses statistical data and analysis to predict every Premier League result based on the ‘most likely outcome’.

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And Newcastle are predicted to lose at Tottenham Hotspur next weekend before securing back-to-back home wins against Wolves and Leicester City at St James’s Park.

A defeat at home to Crystal Palace will be followed up by a win at Norwich – according to the supercomputer at least.

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That win at Norwich won’t be enough to secure Premier League safety in itself, but results elsewhere on April 24 would see United mathematically safe, 15 points clear of the relegation zone with four games remaining.

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It’s just as well as the supercomputer then predicts Eddie Howe’s side to lose their final four matches against Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Burnley.

Elsewhere in the relegation battle, Norwich, Watford and Everton are predicted to lose all of their matches between April 3 and April 24 – leaving them on 17, 22 and 25 points respectively.

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Burnley are predicted to pick up nine points from their next five matches to take them up to 30 points while Leeds United are estimated to be on 35 points after 34 games with Brentford just below them on 33 points.

While the reality is bound to be different to the supercomputer's predictions, it is refreshing to realistically consider Newcastle’s Premier League survival with games to spare considering the predicament they found themselves in earlier in the season.

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