Analysing the intriguing underlying data ahead of Newcastle United and Manchester United’s Carabao Cup final

Very little separates Newcastle United and Manchester United as they head into Sunday’s Carabao Cup final. Both teams have had good Premier League campaigns - although the Red Devil’s are enjoying slightly better form than their opponents at the moment.

Here, using data provided by WyScout, we take a look at what the numbers suggest might happen at Wembley:

Manchester United concede less and score more than they should

People may bemoan ‘Expected Goals’ statistics, but they do offer a window into how teams are performing at both ends of the pitch over a decent length of time. For Manchester United, the data suggests that they score more goals per 90 minutes: 1.93 (compared to an xG of 1.71) and concede less: 1.04 (compared to an xG against of 1.21) than expected.

But what does this mean for Newcastle on Sunday? Well, it means that the Magpies will do well to fashion out chances and when given the opportunity in-front of goal, they need to be clinical to beat David De Gea.

At the other end of the pitch, Newcastle do have the best defensive record in the Premier League and will need to be solid at the back if they are to get their hands on the trophy. Stopping Marcus Rashford who has been outperforming his xG by almost double this season will be one of the main keys to success.

Passing statistics are largely similar

At Ajax, ten Hag was famed for a short passing style that saw his side dominate the ball in almost every game they played. Upon his arrival at Old Trafford, he tried to implement a similar style of play, but after disastrous defeats to Brighton and Brentford, he scaled back his complete style overhaul.

The Red Devil’s are evolving more into the Ajax style of play, although right now, they don’t dominate the ball nearly as much and actually have quite similar passing statistics to Eddie Howe’s side, a team that whilst they often dominate possession, aren’t necessarily famed for their on the ball work. Manchester United have played on average 70 more passes than Newcastle per game this season, but their split of passes, whether it be forward, lateral, back, long or short, remain largely similar to Newcastle - although Newcastle’s average length of pass suggests they are slightly more direct than Sunday’s opponents.

Both teams are happy to press without the ball

All of this data suggests that an even game is anticipated on Sunday with both teams comfortable with the ball at their feet. However, it could be what both teams do out of possession that makes the difference at Wembley.

Both teams are high pressing units that often don’t allow their opponents too much time on the ball before aiming to recover lost possession. Both sides often do this higher up the field, aiming to win the ball back closer to their opponent’s goal.

In what will undoubtedly be a hard-fought affair at Wembley, how each team presses their opponents could be the difference maker on the day.