How many points Newcastle United need to qualify for the Champions League - explained

Back-to-back wins over Tottenham Hotspur and Everton have solidified Newcastle in 3rd place and enhanced their hopes of returning to the competition they last played in two decades ago. Starting with the game against basement club Southampton on Sunday, Newcastle have six games of the season left to play.

But how many points from those games will guarantee a return to the finish? And could Manchester City hold the key to qualification?

What’s the current situation?

Newcastle United currently sit 3rd in the league having taken 62 points from 32 games. Tottenham Hotspur are the side in 5th place, but they sit eight points behind Newcastle heading into this weekend’s round of fixtures - having played a game more than the Magpies.

Aston Villa are also level on points with Spurs having played 33 league games whilst Liverpool are back in 7th place on 53 points. Brighton still have an outside chance at making the top-four, but would need an 11-point swing in their final eight games of the season.

How many points guarantee Champions League football?

Fortunately for Newcastle, their destiny is in their own hands. The most points any side below them, barring Manchester United, can finish on this season is 73.

That figure would require Brighton to win every single one of their eight remaining games, a run that includes games against Newcastle, Manchester United, Arsenal, Manchester City and Aston Villa. Assuming that the Seagulls will drop points in some of those games, the next best total that can be reached is Liverpool’s maximum of 71 points.

Owing to the fact they face each other on May 13, only one of Tottenham and Villa can finish on a maximum of 69 points. All of this means that, at the very worst, Newcastle will need to pick up 11 points from their last six games to finish on 73 points and guarantee Champions League qualification - assuming their goal difference doesn’t take a major hammering between now and the end of the campaign.

In the reverse fixtures for the teams they have left to face, Newcastle picked up 12 points with three wins and three draws.

What if Newcastle United finish outside the top-four?

Newcastle United could be handed a lifeline by Manchester City if they finish outside the top four. If City win the Champions League this season, then they would gain automatic qualification into next year’s competition, meaning the side that finishes in 5th place in the Premier League would qualify for the 2023/24 Champions League.

6th and 7th place finishers would also qualify for European football with a place in next year’s Europa League and Conference League respectively. The FA Cup final will be contested between Manchester United and Manchester City so, assuming there is no major collapse from the Red Devils and they finish in the top 7, then most of next year’s European places will be determined solely by league position.

If West Ham were to win the UEFA Conference League, then they would earn a Europa League place.