The magic number for Newcastle United, Manchester United, Liverpool and Tottenham’s Champions League hopes

Eddie Howe’s side headed into the international break in 5th place, two points behind Tottenham Hotspur, the side that currently occupy 4th place. However, the Magpies have two games in hand over Spurs and would go into third place with a win over Manchester United in their next game.

All of this makes for very exciting reading for supporters and hints that their two decade wait for a return to European football’s premier competition, the Champions League, could be coming to an end very soon. Football is rarely simple though and there will undoubtedly be plenty of twists and turns between now and the season coming to an end on May 28.

So what do Newcastle need to do between now and then and what does the underlying numbers and historical data say about their chances of finishing in a top four spot? Here, we take a look:

What does the historical data say?

Over the past five seasons, no team has needed more than 71 points to finish in the top four. The lowest total needed came in the 2019/20 season which saw Leicester City finish in 5th place with just 62 points.

On average over the past five seasons, teams needed 68.4 (69) points over their 38 games to finish in a Champions League spot. That average was down over two points from the five preceding seasons however.

In those five seasons, from the 2012/13 season to the 2016/17 campaign inclusive, teams needed 70.6 (71) points on average to finish in the top four. Arsenal were the unfortunate side in 2016/17 to miss out on the top four, despite collecting 75 points - four more than they did the previous campaign in which they finished 2nd to Leicester City.

What is the ‘magic number’ for Champions League qualification this season?

The historical data from the last decade suggests that it takes 69.5 points to qualify for the Champions League whilst FiveThirtyEight’s ‘supercomputer’ predicts that only 65 points will be required to finish in the top four this season.

It’s likely that the actual figure for Champions League qualification this season will be in this ballpark with Newcastle needing to finish close to 70 points to secure qualification.

What does Newcastle United’s underlying data suggest?

The Magpies have taken 47 points from their 26 games played this season. On a points per game basis, this equates to 68.7 points over a 38-game season - almost slap bang in the middle of the projected Champions League qualification zone.

Newcastle have 12 games left this season and thus, 36 points left to play for. In the reverse fixtures against the teams they have left to play, starting with Manchester United on Sunday, April 2, Newcastle earned 26 points.

Replicating these results would see them finish on 73 points for the season - a total that should see them qualify for the Champions League. Champions League qualification is in their hands and, according to the data, Newcastle United are in a good position to finish in the top-four.