What Newcastle United must do against PSG to keep Champions League dreams alive

Newcastle United face PSG in a crucial Champions League match tonight in their penultimate group stage game. The Magpies have won one, drawn one and lost two of their Champions League matches so far this season and face a PSG side that have won both of their games at the Parc Des Princes.

Tonight’s game is make or break for the Magpies who still have their destiny in their own hands - but there are plenty of permutations in play heading into tonight’s match, the clash between AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund at the San Siro and into the final group stage matchday. Here, we summarise all the potential outcomes and what Newcastle United need to do tonight to keep their Champions League dreams alive:

What would a defeat for Newcastle United against PSG mean?

Quite simply, a defeat for Newcastle United will send them out of the competition. A win for PSG would put the hosts on nine points - a tally that the Magpies simply wouldn’t be able to match in their final group stage game. A defeat means Newcastle wouldn’t be able to finish on more than seven points and with Dortmund facing off against AC Milan at the same time, one of those clubs have to finish on eight points - an unassailable total for Newcastle. 

What would a draw between Newcastle United and PSG mean?

A draw, meanwhile, would keep Newcastle’s hopes of qualifying for the knockout stages alive, however, they would then be reliant on results elsewhere going their way in order to progress. A draw in Paris coupled with a Dortmund win in Milan tonight would mean that Newcastle head into the final game needing to beat AC Milan and hoping that Dortmund are able to avoid defeat against Luis Enrique’s side.

An AC Milan win tonight would mean Newcastle have to beat the Rossoneri at St James’ Park and hope that PSG avoid defeat against Dortmund in order for the Magpies to progress. A draw in both games tonight would see Newcastle progress if they beat AC Milan and PSG fail to beat Dortmund next time out.

What would a win for Newcastle United against PSG mean?

A win for Newcastle tonight would mean that, no matter what happened in other games in their group, they would qualify for the knockout rounds if they defeat AC Milan at St James’ Park next month. A win for the Magpies in Paris and a Dortmund win against Milan would also mean Newcastle can qualify for the next stage with a draw against AC Milan if Dortmund avoid defeat to PSG in their final group stage game.

The head-to-head factor…

Champions League group placings are decided first by points and then by head-to-head records, rather than goal difference. This means that if Newcastle finish level on points with Borussia Dortmund, then they will finish below their German counterparts in the group stage.

However, by avoiding defeat against PSG this evening, then Newcastle will end the group stage with a better head-to-head record over the Ligue 1 side. A win against AC Milan would also see a similar outcome.

Of course, they must finish on at least the same points as any of these sides for this to be a factor, however, it is something that may give Howe’s side a slight edge when all is said and done.