What Newcastle United need to do to qualify from Champions League Group F after PSG controversy

Newcastle United were denied a famous win at the Parc des Princes by a very controversial last minute penalty on Tuesday night. Kylian Mbappe dispatched the spot-kick to rescue a point for PSG and put them in control of their own destiny in this season’s Champions League.

With just one game left of the group stages to play, there is still hope that the Magpies can qualify for the Champions League knockout stages for the first time in their history. Here, we take a look at what that draw in Paris means for the group and what Newcastle United need to do in order to qualify from the group:

How Champions League Group F currently looks…

Borussia Dortmund secured their progress to the knockout stage by defeating AC Milan 3-1 at the San Siro. PSG currently sit second in the group with seven points, Newcastle in third with five points and AC Milan in fourth place also on five points. 

What Newcastle United need to do v AC Milan to progress from the group…

Quite simply, Newcastle United must beat AC Milan at St James’ Park on Wednesday, 13 December to stand a chance of qualifying for the next stage. If they do that, then they will also need Dortmund to either draw with or beat PSG at Signal Iduna Park.

A PSG win in Germany would mean they top the group and that Newcastle United would be eliminated at the group stage. Anything else other than a win against AC Milan would also see Newcastle eliminated.

Borussia Dortmund home record hope...

Whilst relying on other results and thus needing an already qualified Dortmund side to at least take a point from PSG is far from ideal, there are a couple of factors that could give Newcastle fans hope that the result in Germany could go in their favour.  First, Dortmund need at least a point in order to guarantee finishing 1st and securing a more favourable draw in the knockout stage. 

Teams that finish first in the group are guaranteed to play a team that finished as group runners-up and that they will have the second-leg of that match in-front of their own fans. Furthermore, Dortmund have a pretty astonishing home record in 2023 having lost just once at Signal Iduna Park in 2023 - and that came against Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich.

Europa League possibilities…

A PSG win in Germany doesn’t mean Newcastle’s European adventure would be over, however. That’s because teams that finish 3rd in their groups drop into the Europa League and will play in the Round of 32 knockout stage of that competition.

For Newcastle to guarantee finishing at least 3rd in the group, they simply have to avoid defeat against AC Milan at St James’ Park. 

The head-to-head factor…

Champions League group placings are decided first by points and then by head-to-head records, rather than goal difference. This means that should Newcastle and PSG finish on level points in the group stage, then it will be the Magpies that finish above their Ligue 1 counterparts.

Milan, meanwhile, can also progress from the group, but because of their head-to-head record with PSG, they must beat Newcastle at St James’ Park and hope PSG are defeated by Dortmund.