I analysed Newcastle United 'transfer target' and here's why it would be a blatantly obvious move

Newcastle United’s ongoing battle with the Premier League’s profit and sustainability regulations has been eased by the outgoing business conducted by the Magpies during the January transfer window.

The departure of Miguel Almiron to former club Atlanta United boosted the coffers and there will be a further boost to the Magpies finances when Lloyd Kelly completes a permanent move to Juventus after spending the second half of the season on loan with the Serie A giants. United’s wage bill should be further reduced at the end of the season when Jamaal Lascelles and Callum Wilson see their current deals at St James Park come to a close.

There is a clear and obvious need to boost the quality and strength-in-depth of Eddie Howe’s squad ahead of next season and Newcastle have been linked with several players across Europe. A new goalkeeper, centre-back, winger and forward seem high on the agenda and there have been reports suggesting Magpies recruitment staff have held some key meetings as they plan their business for the summer.

One name that refuses to go away is Lille forward Jonathan David, who was named on a shortlist of three possible attacking targets earlier this week. The Canada international is set to be one of the hottest free agents on the market this summer as his contract comes to an end - and there is good reason why the Magpies, and several other clubs, are considering a move for his services.

What has Jonathan David said about his future at Lille?

Speaking to French news outlet Onze Mondial last month, the forward said: “Yes, I will be free at the end of the season. And as for my future, I hope to grow, to become a better player, and to play for the biggest clubs in the world, if I can. But first of all, I just want to have fun, never forget that football is fun. I started playing football because I had fun. And even though it has now become my job, you have to remember that I wake up every morning for football, for the pleasure of playing.

“You’ll all know when the time is right. That’s at the end of the season. I’m not going to comment before then. First of all, though, I just want to enjoy myself and never forget that football is about fun. I want to end this season well. The finale promises to be exciting, and I want to play well and help the team out. Then when the season is over, my decision will be made.”

What have Lille said about Jonathan David’s future?

“Jonathan’s situation is very simple,” Lille president Oliver Létang told RMC Sport in an interview in November. “We are very happy to have him with us. Last off-season, he had one year left on his contract. We could have qualified for the Champions League. We weren’t stuck with the obligation to sell him. Besides, we didn’t get any offers. Our position was very clear from the start, we thought about the player. Jonathan, obviously, already has an offer [from Lille] in his hands. The ball is in his court.

“We have had a lot of discussions about the fact that he could stay with us. He will not leave in January. He will stay with us because he is an important player. He will stay because in May we have objectives. When you have a player who scores 20-25 goals, qualifying for the Champions League at the end of the season balances out a transfer that didn’t happen. He said that LOSC is his club, he loves the club.”

What do the statistics say about Newcastle United transfer target Jonathan David?

The most obvious statistic to analyse with any attacking player is their output in the final third - and David does not fail to impress when it comes to goals and assists during his time with Lille. Since joining the Ligue 1 club in August 2020, the Canada star has plundered his way to an impressive 105 goals in 221 appearances in all competitions. and when his 27 assists are added into his tally, David has produced an average of a goal contribution once in every 1.7 games. His impressive form has also transferred to the international stage as David has scored 31 goals and provided 18 assists in 59 senior caps for Canada.

Looking purely at the current season in isolation, David has scored 21 goals and provided 10 assists in 38 appearances in all competitions and his profile has been raised after he netted in Champions League games against the likes of Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Juventus and Liverpool as Lille progressed into the last 16 of the competition.

It can be difficult to compare David with current Magpies star Alexander Isak given the relative strength of the Premier League and Ligue 1 - but we can compare key statistics using the FBref website. Looking at their average stats per game, David (0.66) and Isak (0.69) have a similar xG (expected goals) and it is the possible United striker, rather than the current Magpies star, that gets more shots on target. David gets an impressive 51.2% of his shots on target compared to Isak’s 47.0% and the Canada star also has a higher passing success rate with 81.5% compared to Isak’s 73.9%. However, it is the current member of Eddie Howe’s squad that comes out on top when it comes to most touches in the penalty area, total distance of ball carries and more successful take-ons.

Comment

Firstly, it would be sensible to suggest there is no such thing as a free transfer in modern day football. Although there is no transfer fee, the cost of signing a free agent can be considerable as they look to secure a sizeable weekly wage and a significant signing-on fee. That said, Newcastle’s need to add to their attacking options ahead of Callum Wilson’s likely departure is all too obvious and David’s ability to place in a number of positions in the final third means he offers both versatility, flexibility and unquestionable quality to Howe’s ranks.

Newcastle will face major competition in the race to sign David now he seems to have indicated he will leave Lille on a free transfer at the end of the season. Several of European football’s biggest clubs are said to be considering a move for his services - and there is no doubt he would be a worthwhile addition if the Magpies were to win the race to sign one of the most in-demand free agents during the summer.

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